March Marketing Matters

Did you get your march edition of Market Matters ? It will soon be published on the Outokumpu website. Here is a preview from the latest edition.

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Asian Currencies Have Best Week in Two Months on Recovery Signs

Source: Bloomberg 3/29/13

Asian currencies had the best week in more than two months on speculation an economic recovery in the U.S. will boost demand for the region’s exports. Gross domestic product in the world’s largest economy rose faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, while orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in February, reportsshowed this week.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the 10 most-active currencies in the region excluding the yen, advanced 0.2 percent since March 22. “The expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to improve,” said Yeah Kim Leng, chief economist at RAM Holdings Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “With a stronger U.S. recovery, export oriented Asian economies will benefit, strengthening their currencies.”

The ringgit strengthened 0.7 percent this week to 3.0903 per dollar as of 4:30 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. South Korea’s won climbed 0.7 percent to 1,111.35 and Taiwan’s dollar rose 0.1 percent to NT$29.875.

The Asia Dollar Index lost 0.2 percent this month as global investors pulled more than $3 billion out of the stock markets of South Korea and Taiwan amid concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen.

The Malaysian currency touched a five-week high of 3.0859 on March 25 after the central bank said last week that gross domestic product will increase as much as 6 percent this year from 5.6 percent in 2012. Prime Minister Najib Razak has embarked on a $444 billion spending program to build railways, roads and power plants in an effort to lift the country to developed-nation status by 2020.

Yuan Rises

The yuan touched a 19-year high today after the People’s Bank of China raised the reference rate to the strongest level in more than 10 months.

The PBOC increased the daily fixing by 0.08 percent to 6.2689 per dollar, the highest since May 2, 2012. The currency is allowed to trade 1 percent either side of the rate. The Purchasing Managers’

Index for manufacturing in March will be 51, indicating a sixth month of expansion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists before official data on April 1. “Investors continue to be convinced about the gradual appreciation of the yuan,” said Samson Tu, a Taipei-based fund manager at Uni- President Assets Management Corp., which oversees $700 million.

The yuan advanced 0.02 percent this week to 6.2108 per dollar, prices from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System show. The currency rose as high as 6.2086 today, the strongest level since the government unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.

Korean Won

The won had the first weekly gain in almost a month after data showed South Korea’s current-account surplus widened in February. The surplus increased to $2.71 billion from $2.33 billion in January, the Bank of Korea said yesterday. The gap for March is likely to be similar as improving exports will offset an expected rise in dividend payments to foreign investors, according to Cho Yong Seung, a central bank official.

Elsewhere, Thailand’s baht was steady from a week ago at 29.28 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Financial markets in India, Indonesia and Philippines are closed today. India’s rupee gained 0.1 percent from March 22 to 54.28 per dollar yesterday, while Indonesia’s rupiah advanced 0.3 percent to 9,715.

The Philippine peso appreciated 0.1 percent to 40.823 yesterday.

The Rising Cost of Oil and Gas

Gas prices

December 21st, 2012 may not have been the end of the world as the Mayans predicted, yet 2012 may indeed the end of the world as we know it. The end of cheap oil could mean the end of business as usual. Cheap oil was what made our way of life, what allowed us to live miles away from food, water, work and use transport as an everyday option for every question.  Long story short, it is what allowed us to import cheap goods from China and to consume at exponential rates. Some sources believe that the days are over when oil extraction and finding new deposits was easy, that the economy is going to need to find alternate sources of energy to function at our everyday pace.

Despite major oil finds off Brazil’s coast, new fields in North Dakota and ongoing increases in the conversion of tar sands to oil in Canada, fresh supplies of petroleum are only just enough to offset the production decline from older fields. At best, the world is now living off an oil plateau.  For the entrepreneurial minds this means that we have the opportunity to create solutions and creatively adapt to a less energy intensive world. Tensions in the Middle East will as always continue to create uncertain futures for oil pricing and global demands as economies grow will putting further pressure on pricing levels, as we can see already this week. Bloomberg estimates crude oil will average $110 USD a barrel for 2013.

On the sidelines of industry and investment news, off the East coast of Canada the Hebron Project is about to get on its way with a recent sanctioning, which is expected to begin oil production around the end of 2017.  Capital cost for the project is estimated at $14 billion, the platform is being designed for daily production of 150,000 barrels of oil and in turn numerous job openings in the Mari-times.
Where some say the future of the oil economy is at its peak and an alternate sustainable resource is in need not only to fuel our vehicles, but the countless jobs it employs.  Canada’s Mari-times have been booming over the past half-decade and are only forecasted to continue at this rate over the next 4 years.

The price of crude oil for the next twelve months is about as easy to predict as the winners of the 2020 Superbowl. Factors such as availability, economic growth and the advancement of alternative fuels are only some of the issues that can impact the pricing, however we should be prepared for continued pressures in 2013 based on the current information that we can see.

Regards,

Stuart Sage

Innovation by design, not always.

When we think of Apple we think of innovation. However in light of the current copyright case between Apple and Samsung, many people are questioning how innovative Apple really is. During the case witnesses testify the design of tablets were shown to Apple well before the iPad was invented.- Bloomberg

Most likely the inventions of both of these companies did not originate in house, in fact Steve Jobs to his credit admitted that. Quoted as saying, “We (Apple) have always been shameless about stealing great ideas” and “Good artists copy and great artist steal.” He knew that the innovation in Apple was marketing and making these products a consumer’s desire.
Understanding that innovation comes in many forms is important when building your your business strategy, but remember creating a differentiating point that customers want is the greatest innovation any company can have.

Henry Ford did not invent the car, he invented making the car affordable to the consumer.

Cheers,

Lorne

Is Steel Industry Robust or in Decline? Who knows

Daily we get differing opinions on the strength of the steel industry as seen by these two separate articles posted in the last 24 hrs
Steel Profits Continue to Soar – China Daily

Steel Industry’s financial bubble bursts in China – American Metal Market

These articles were very representative of how diverse the opinion on the strength of the steel market is, even from Bloomberg, the Financial Post and Rueters. This creates difficulty for forecasting on sales and planning for investments.  The question then for your business is which becomes the reliable sources for your future outlook?

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