To see forward we need to look back

This week we are looking at what the economy holds for us in 2013. While none of us has a working crystal ball we may have some ways of creating a very good forecast for the future. One of the best ways to create a forecast is to look back into our own sales and discover market and customer trends. The other of course is too look at the economy as a whole and see what major indicators that impact your industry are providing you.

For us and the majority of industry in the world, looking at the performance of the US economy is a great measuring stick. In 2012 we saw that the unemployment rate fell due to job creation and not frustrated workers pulling out of the market. This should be a positive sign but as the majority of these jobs were created in the public sector it means that industry is still lagging in growth. The info-graphic we display below shows that manufacturing and construction is declining since the turn of the century in the US. This shows that while there seems to be a turnaround in the economy as a whole these two sectors should expect the rate of growth to lag behind the overall economy.

How the American Economy has Changed in the 21st Century [Infographic]
© 2012 InetSoft Technology Corp.

What The UK Solar Market Can Teach The US

Protectionism or Expediency?


America is currently embroiled in a trade dispute with China and facing allegations of protectionism from both outside and within the US. The government are preparing to charge Chinese companies who are involved in the manufacture of solar panels a penalty of between 18-250%, accusing them of ‘dumping’ their products onto the fledgling US solar market.

The Chinese are accused of selling their products below production costs and flooding the market with cheap solar modules, forcing down costs and providing unfair competition with their US counterparts. Many in the renewable energy industry feel that this exhibition of ‘over enthusiastic protectionism’ will be an own goal for the American solar market, leading to even higher prices for the consumer who already faces paying 100% more than UK customers for their solar solutions.

The Chinese Rationale

The major expense involved in the manufacture of solar panels comes not from the materials, labour or transportation, but from the construction of the plant which manufacturers the products. The Chinese know that the larger the factories they build, the lower the actual production costs will be. They have made the decision that it is preferable to continue manufacturing, creating an over capacity in the global market and selling their solar panels at the cost of production plus a small percentage, than to leave their huge factories laying idle.

Still in its infancy, the US solar industry is, unfortunately, hampered by red tape which is primarily the reason why their home owners and businesses face having to pay double the cost for their solar installations than their UK and European counterparts. A possible solution would be to follow our example by cutting the unnecessary bureaucracy surrounding the industry and focus less on home grown manufacturing, but concentrate on bringing down the cost of solar installations to bolster the market, providing growth in associated employment opportunities.

Where the UK Solar Market has Succeeded

The UK and European solar market have responded to the problems of over capacity and the attendant reduction in the costs of panels by lowering the subsidies available to consumers; for example, the Feed-in Tariff, thereby still getting the same amount (or more) of renewable energy for the same costs.

Through statistics released by Compare-my-solar, it is clear to see that, despite the uncertainty caused by the reduction of the Feed-in Tariff in late 2011 and early 2012, the UK solar market is still showing periods of growth:

April 2010 – October 2011 (FIT at 41p) showed a 4% weekly growth.
April 2012 – July 2012 (FIT at 21p) showed a 12% weekly growth.
August 2012 – October 2012 (FIT at 16p) showed a 10% weekly growth.

These findings clearly indicate that consumers are still confident that, when off setting the new Feed-in Tariff rates against the savings to be gained from the reduction in panel costs, the financial returns provided from a solar installation still offer a good investment. Industry insiders are also convinced that, despite the challenges faced by some in the solar installation market by the current low demand in absolute terms, with a predicted rise in growth of 10% per week, the market could see the number of installations rise back to numbers similar to those seen in the heyday of the 41p FIT by the close of 2012.

US Resistance to Solar?

With the American people facing an election in a matter of weeks, it may be timely to look at the views of the two opposing candidates for the race to the White House; incumbent President Barak Obama and Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. Many will agree that before President Obama was elected to office in 2008, the solar industry played little or no part in the US economy. Despite supportive legislation for the renewable energy sector, federal incentives for solar power are a fraction of those for gas, oil and coal and the overall capacity of solar generation in the US currently stands at just 5GW – not too impressive when compared against the ‘tiny’ UK which has a capacity of 1.3GW.

Tax credits for those using solar power were, at one time, routinely renewed with bi-partisan support but are now viewed as controversial by many in the government who view the renewable energy industry as a threat to the fossil fuel status quo. US consumers also have to pay up to 50% of the expense for a rooftop solar array on so-called ‘soft costs’ like permits, grid connection and installation.

For those who are pinning their hopes for the future of US solar power on Mitt Romney, he suggested in an interview that both solar and wind power were ‘imaginary’ sources of energy; not too much hope from that quarter then!

Author bio: Ian Wright is a strong supporter of renewable energy in the UK and around the world. You can learn more about solar panel in the UK from The Eco Experts.

Wishing the Chinese economy well…for our sake.

We started this week asking what impact you think China’s slowing economy will have, if any, on your business. I am sure that some people thought there would be no impact as they do not sell in China or work with Chinese companies. In our industry some might have felt it is positive as a number of imported goods come from Chinese origin and a slowing income might put price pressure on the goods resulting in a value for the purchasing company. Perhaps unless you were a net exporter to China you did not see or feel that there is any risk to your company as a whole. If you thought this, you are likely wrong.

China is now the third largest economy in the World behind the European Union and the United States. China supported 13.8% industrial growth in 2011 which far exceeds any other G20 country (Germany was second at 8%). Their economic growth or GDP rate of 9.2% also blew past other large economies like Germany (3.1%), Canada (2.5%) and the United States at (1.7%)[i].  Their size and growth has had many say that they kept the recession from becoming a true depression. China is a huge consumer of natural resources such as oil, wood products and minerals becoming a huge net importer. These industries and resources are driving many economies like Canada, Russia, Sweden, United States and Finland directly and indirectly. In some countries these industries are propping up the total economy, such as Canada where other sectors such as manufacturing are still declining. If China does have an economic downturn as many have predicted, then natural resource based economies like Canada will see a large decline in this sector. This impact will trickle throughout the Canadian economy and see housing markets slow and values decline, services sectors would then have reduced financial resources and face similar short comings. Canada which many have shown as a “best example” of a well-managed economy could fall greater than other G8 countries did during the original or double dip recession. The one sector that might benefit in Canada would be manufacturing. As resources decline so would the Canadian dollar and create a new competitive advantage as the labour component would become much more competitive.

If you are in manufacturing and feel this might solve some of your issues, the problem could be more complex as well. As demand slows within China, Chinese producers will be promoting their product internationally at a higher rate. This new abundance of low cost product would put increased pressures on manufacturers as they faced greater price pressures and tighter margins.

China is looking adding a stimulus packages to boost their economic outlook, but as the United States has shown these offer short term remedies at best.  With the United States and the European Union still spinning their wheels to gain some footing in the economy, having China start to fall should be worrying for all including traditional insulated segments like oil and gas and mining. The question remains, can the drop be slowed or stopped in time for the World economy to be stable enough to sustain the pressures of another economic giant stumbling?

There are some that believe China’s economy will recover soon like Wayne Swan the Australian treasurer and China Daily who is predicting as early as Q4 2012. I personally hope so because a decline economy may not seem scary to you but it scares the heck out of me.

Cheers,

Lorne

 


[i] Economic Data from CIA-The World Factbook

How worried should we be about China?

There is no denying that China’s economy is shrinking, the issue is not if but by how much and what impact does it have on other economies.

We will look deeper on this for our industry on Friday and supporting industries like those related to resources.
Until then here is some articles on China’s impact on the whole and we ask you how worried are you about China’s economic impact.

Forbes calls it the Great Shrinking Economy of China

Fox news is very forward and states China’s economy is shrinking

The telegraph looks at the World economic impact with China and the G20

 

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